The 2018 National Defense Strategy reorientated U.S. policy toward great power competition, but challenges to American influence in Latin America have intensified over the past three decades as our stated adversaries have quietly built their influence across the region.
In 2010, Sean Goforth described an emerging coalition — Venezuela, Iran and Russia, or “VIRUS” — with little in common except a shared ambition to reshape the American-led global order. Now, with China acting as a force multiplier, this coalition has become a formidable front in a great power competition against actors that reject Western principles like human rights and a fundamental respect for the rules of the game.
Though some view this as a regional concern, experts have argued that we have entered a new, more dangerous Cold War. The stakes are evident in flashpoints such as Russia’s illegal, full-scale invasion of Ukraine, China’s posture on Taiwan, Iran’s proxy conflicts in the Middle East, and Venezuela’s claim to the Essequibo region. Each crisis heightens the risk of a multifront, multidomain conflict, at a time when a congressional commission revealed the U.S. is both militarily and industrially unprepared.
To sustain its global leadership, Washington must reimagine the Monroe Doctrine for the 21st century, to secure its position that has historically formed part of the Western world. Through robust collaboration with Latin American allies, the U.S. can prevent the region from becoming a foothold for adversaries and reinforce values such as democracy and free markets.
Failure to act would be irresponsible. In this current war of perception, inaction signals weakness to our adversaries across the hemisphere and beyond. On the eve of the future fight — and with our borders still unsecured — such inaction could lead to serious security consequences for Americans and our interests.
Russia’s presence in the region surged (after a brief, post-Soviet hiatus) with Hugo Chávez’s rise in Venezuela in 1998, marking the start of billions in arms deals that include Su-30 fighter jets, missile systems, and the Bal-E missile. Venezuela now holds one of the world’s largest MANPAD stockpiles, a testament to Moscow’s continued support. In 2018, Russia landed nuclear-capable Tu-160 bombers in Venezuela, and in June 2024, Russian warships, including a nuclear submarine, conducted exercises in Cuban waters, just miles from American shores.
Over the last decade, an increasing number of Latin American countries have purchased arms from Russia or benefited from Russian military assistance. Russia’s influence in the region is further exemplified by its operations in Nicaragua, where it runs a GLONASS satellite station and maintains a troop presence, signaling a sustained commitment to counter U.S. influence near American borders.
Although I am not a historian, I am keenly aware that, at times, history does indeed rhyme. For this reason, I believe it is imperative to remember that it was the Kremlin’s partnership with Fidel Castro in Cuba that brought the world to the brink of nuclear Armageddon in October 1962.
China has embedded itself across Latin America through major investments and infrastructure projects, securing influence in key nations like Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Mexico. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has forged partnerships with 22 Latin American countries, constructing port facilities, integrating dual-use infrastructure and technology, and establishing military-to-military ties.
China’s training programs now reach more Latin American military officers than those of the U.S. — a concerning shift. In Cuba, China’s cooperation includes intelligence operations and discussions around a permanent military training facility, marking a strategic expansion of Beijing’s footprint close to U.S. shores.
In a 2021 interview with Axios, Ivonne Baki, former Ecuadorian ambassador to Washington, warned that the “U.S. is losing Latin America to China without putting up a fight.”
Iran has established proxy networks and operational alliances across Latin America through its Quds Force, collaborating with Hezbollah and reportedly coordinating with Colombian rebels and other anti-U.S. factions. This infrastructure amplifies Iran’s reach near U.S. borders, creating a significant security threat. Venezuela’s hosting of Iranian drones places these assets 1,200 miles from Miami, offering Tehran options for rapid-response or covert actions.
The 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, linked to Iranian-backed Hezbollah, demonstrates the deadly impact of Iran’s influence. Now, with a growing military and intelligence presence, Iran has positioned Latin America as a base for operations close to U.S. borders — yet another front in one of Tehran’s proxy wars.
To safeguard our hemisphere, the U.S. must forge deeper partnerships across Latin America, recognizing our shared Western heritage. This historical connection should be the foundation of a renewed Monroe Doctrine focused on building industrial and military alliances to reinforce collective security.
Expanding and modernizing exercises like UNITAS, traditionally focused on maritime security, will be essential. Incorporating cybersecurity and asymmetric threat training would equip partner nations for today’s challenges. Increasing the rotational presence of U.S. forces in countries like Colombia and Brazil would affirm America’s commitment to regional stability and cooperation. It is useful, too, to remember that there are indeed abandoned American bases in countries where a vacuum in American power has allowed widespread violence to erupt.
A reimagined Monroe Doctrine must also prioritize nearshoring U.S. supply chains in Latin America, enhancing resilience against disruptions and reducing dependency on adversarial powers. Strategic partnerships in critical defense and industrial production can bolster both economies, creating a robust economic buffer against a strained American industrial base.
The U.S. cannot afford to be passive as adversaries encroach on our hemisphere. As Paul Morphy, the 19th-century chess master, advised, “help your pieces so they can help you.” Renewed engagement with Latin America is a strategic necessity to counter rival powers; a reimagined Monroe Doctrine must serve as both shield and platform for decisive action.
The time to secure the Western Hemisphere is now, reinforcing it as a bastion of cooperation and shared Western values.
Johannes Schmidt is a graduate of the George Washington University and has worked at free-market think tanks and public relations firms in Washington and Latin America.
