All year long, the Dodgers have been reluctant to use their top relievers in “minus” games, as manager Dave Roberts likes to call contests where his team is facing an early deficit.
In Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, the cost of that strategy became clear.
A slim early-game deficit against the New York Mets ballooned to an insurmountable seven-run hole when the Dodgers left Jack Flaherty in for a five-run third inning. Even though the offense responded by scoring five times after that, the New York lead had grown too big for the Dodgers to complete a come-from-behind win.
To Roberts, that was simply the cost of doing business — especially for a team that doesn’t believe it can afford to waste outings from its highest-leverage relievers.
“You have to kind of remain steadfast in how you use your pitchers,” Roberts argued in his postgame news conference. “Because ultimately it’s about winning four games in a seven-game series.”
Now, as the NLCS shifts back to Los Angeles, the Dodgers are banking on that cautious bullpen management to yield pennant-clinching benefits.
Needing just one more win to reach the World Series, the Dodgers will run a bullpen game in Sunday’s Game 6, Roberts confirmed during Saturday’s off-day. The hope is that the bullpen bullets they saved in Game 5 — and a similar loss in Game 2 — will pay off back at Dodger Stadium this week.
“I feel that to prevent runs, we’re in a very good spot,” Roberts said. “I don’t think we’ve exposed our high-leverage guys at all.
Indeed, even though the Dodgers’ starting pitchers this series (including Landon Knack in Game 2, who followed an opener) have combined for just 21 ⅓ innings in the first five games, the most trusted options in the team’s bullpen have largely been spared.
Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Daniel Hudson have each pitched just once in this series. Anthony Banda has thrown only 20 pitches over two appearances. Blake Treinen has taken down 2 ⅓ innings in two outings, but only faced one hitter twice in that span: Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor.
It means, going into Game 6, the Dodgers’ top relief arms will not only be fresh, but relatively unfamiliar to the Mets’ lineup — a potentially impactful byproduct of the Dodgers’ decision to essentially punt on their two losses this past week.
According to MLB researcher Sarah Langs, hitters in the postseason since 2019 have a .275 batting average and .483 slugging percentage when facing relief pitchers for a third time in a series. For comparison, hitters in the postseason have only hit .232 with a .392 slugging percentage overall in that same span.
This is a dynamic the Dodgers are hoping factors into the next two days, when their relievers will likely get most — if not all — of Game 6 and could be needed for more big innings behind starter Walker Buehler in Game 7, if the series gets there.
“We’ve kind of been protected from some of their guys in the lineup,” Phillips said. “And I think the rest is probably more important, to keep our guys fresh for tomorrow and a Game 7 if necessary. But those two things are hopefully in our favor.”
Exactly how the Dodgers’ Game 6 pitching plan will look remains unclear. Roberts said it could look similar to Game 2, but that he will be more willing to get aggressive with his higher-leverage arms earlier in the game.
“It’s an all-hands-on-deck situation,” Roberts said. “That’s how I’m gonna look at tomorrow.”
What is evident, however, is the Dodgers’ comfort level in depending upon the bullpen at the season’s most critical point.
It worked in Game 4 of the NL Division Series, when the Dodgers were facing elimination. The unit has been integral in each of the club’s other five wins this October, as well. Overall, Dodgers relievers have a 2.94 ERA in the playoffs. And their highest-leverage quintet — Treinen, Phillips, Kopech, Hudson and Banda — has been virtually flawless, combining for a staggering 23 ⅔ scoreless innings.
Given the club’s conservative usage of those five lately, they should be primed to continue that dominance through the rest of this series.
The Dodgers, of course, will need to them to be; effectively putting the season in their hands after deciding to not more aggressively chase comeback wins in their two losses to the Mets this series.
“I think we’ve kind of built up that confidence and that equity in bullpen games over the course of the past few seasons,” Phillips said. “Bullpen games are a piece of how we run things here. We’re certainly excited about the opportunity to have a piece in it tomorrow.”
Roberts will still have to strike a balance with his reliever usage Sunday. If he pushes his bullpen too hard in a Game 6 loss, it could compromise them for a potential Game 7.
Then again, this the moment the Dodgers have been saving the back-end of their bullpen for. All year, that group has been the strength of the pitching staff. And if the Dodgers are to win their fourth pennant in the last eight years, that unit will likely have to lead them there.
“The offense scoring matters too,” Roberts noted. “But I think, in a vacuum, bullpen games give you a chance to prevent runs, certainly.”
