The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad creates a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. The weaponry that American policymakers can wield for that rebalance are not bombs, but commerce.
Washington needs a plan to create conditions for future U.S. investment to stabilize Syria — and to make sure Russia doesn’t regain a foothold. If policymakers can smartly and strategically work with American businesses and other partners, the U.S. can blunt Russian influence in Syria and Vladimir Putin’s plans to project power in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.
It essential for the U.S. to act now. While Russia’s position in Syria has weakened, it is now likely to double-down on cementing its place in the country. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and a signatory to the U.N. resolution that outlines a post-Assad transition, Russia has diplomatic influence in negotiations. Nor has Russia entirely vacated its military bases in Syria. Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s current de facto leader, noted “deep strategic” interests between Russia and Syria.
Russia will likely to try leveraging its business ties. After Russia’s military intervention in Syria in late 2015 to rescue Assad, Russian companies (along with the paramilitary group Wagner, now rebranded as AfricaCorp) gained access to Syria’s resources, including energy, phosphates and telecommunications. Russia stands to lose billions in investments in Syria, along with loans to the Assad regime.
Any American plan to counter Russia must start with sanctions. Washington enclosed the Assad regime within a tight network of various sanctions; revoking them all will take years, but discussion is now underway for issuing waivers and licenses to encourage economic development and foreign investment in Syria. On Jan. 6, the Treasury Department issued additional sanctions relief. If early waivers are issued for humanitarian reasons, U.S. officials must ensure Russia cannot take advantage of any loopholes in the sanctions regime, including through use of shell companies and other third parties that can be hard to trace.
The U.S. must also be proactive and go beyond sanctions. Washington can do this by empowering Ukrainians and other partners to help rebuild Syria. Indeed, President Volodymyr Zelensky has already expressed an eagerness to do so. The U.S. can respect the existing sanctions regime while helping to identify what assistance Ukrainians and other partners need to work in Syria in a way that empowers them and shuts Russia out.
Until recently, Russia was the largest provider of wheat to Syria — grain that Russia largely stole from Ukraine. With Assad’s fall, Russia’s supplies have been suspended. The U.S., in partnership with American firms, should make sure that Ukrainian wheat reaches Syria. Later on, it should expand that option to other commercial interests, like telecommunications, shutting out Russia.
Lastly, the U.S. could build a better public messaging campaign, also potentially with help from the private sector, to highlight what America and its partners are doing to help Syria. In previous years, America often did not label humanitarian aid for fear of Assad’s retribution. The U.S. didn’t care about getting credit; it prioritized helping the Syrian people. Now is the time to also start getting credit.
No one should have any illusions. Helping Syria will be very difficult. But the U.S. has been the top provider of humanitarian aid to Syria over the years, with over $17 billion in humanitarian relief since 2011. If the U.S. has succeeded in getting aid to Syria with Assad in control, surely it can go beyond aid now that Assad is gone and Russia (and Iran) are losing sway. Top Russian officials often travel to foreign countries with business delegations. Moscow understands the importance of commercial ties in politics. The U.S. can beat Putin at his own game.
American credibility is on the line. Beyond that, failing to support Syria will cost the U.S. more in Ukraine. American policymakers have long said Russia must not be allowed to profit from Assad’s war crimes. Over the years, Russian officials cried crocodile tears about humanitarian suffering in Syria while Putin helped Assad bomb his own civilians. Moscow has been able to repeat its crimes in Ukraine on an even larger scale. That will continue unless the price to Russia becomes high enough.
The Russians are currently betting that Washington will simply give up on the Middle East — and the U.S. would lose face around the world if Moscow is proven right. If Russia entrenches a commercial presence in Syria, it will use economic gains to fund its war effort in Ukraine, likely raising the costs for the West, as it would need to give Ukraine more aid in response. Moscow will also use its presence in Syria to build influence across the region.
Putin doesn’t want peace for the world — he wants chaos. Russia has already succeeded in undermining world trade, destabilizing economies and regimes for its own power. Putin started the largest armed conflict in Europe soil since World War II when he invaded Ukraine. There is no pretending now that the Ukraine war is an isolated conflict.
Yes, it is the Syrian people who must build their own future. Yet the stability of that future would be far more secure with the help of the world’s dominant economic superpower. The U.S. has a remarkable opportunity to regain its influence throughout the Middle East by resisting Moscow’s attempts to install itself at the center of a new world order. Allowing Russian dominance in Syria will only assure further chaos and war.
Anna Borshchevskaya is the Harold Grinspoon Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute and the author of “Putin’s War in Syria: Russian Foreign Policy and the Price of America’s Absence.”
