As the election cycle heats up, the candidates and their teams will undoubtedly discuss the topic of crime and public safety. Sometimes, they will point to a specific event that many Americans have seen through social media or heard from their neighbors and friends.
Yet, what may be going viral does not always match the data.
As someone who has researched this issue for almost 30 years and who also served as the Director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, one of the nation’s 13 federal statistical agencies charged with collecting and disseminating crime and justice data, I think it is important to talk about what the data say and what they don’t say on two issues: where are crime trends and do immigrants commit more crime.
First, let’s start with where crime trends are now relative to the pandemic-related increases. The bottom line is this: At the national level and in most cities, crime — especially violent crime — will continue its multi-year decline by the end of 2024 and will likely be at a low not seen in over 50 years.
The nation is much safer today than we were in the 1990s and certainly the 1980s. This has been observed by several independent researchers using police reports, including AH Datalytics, NORC and the Council on Criminal Justice — where I serve as a senior advisor to the crime trends working group, as well as data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics self-reported National Crime Victimization Survey.
Of course, it is hard to pinpoint the reasons for the recent decreases. But leading candidates include the things that have resumed after pandemic-related disruptions to local governments including schools, workers and police.
Others include the unprecedented investments made via the American Rescue Plan and the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act that have worked to remove ghost guns, infused significant funding in anti-gun violence community violence interventions, and created Gun Violence Prevention Offices at the federal level and now over a dozen states.
Still, others credit the partnerships not only between local, state and federal agencies but also police and non-policing entities that have shown success in places like Boston, Nashville, Dallas and Miami. Crime prevention is not an either/or decision.
Many of these investments are for those at risk right now, but they are critically important for youth who, in a matter of years, may be exposed to criminogenic situations. As I recently told an audience attending a crime trends panel at the National Conference on State Legislatures, we can be smart on crime if we are smarter on people and places.
Second, turning to the purported link between immigration and crime, I’ll be as clear as possible: A large body of research finds that immigrants do not commit more crimes than native-born Americans. And in the limited evidence surrounding illegal immigrants, the same conclusion holds.
I have been involved in several of these studies, including in the state of Texas, which records immigration status when people are arrested. In that study, we found that American citizens were 1.19 times more likely to be arrested in Texas than immigrants. Also, this trend was observed for both violent (1.18 times) and drug (1.67) offenses as well.
By and large, those people who want to come to America do so for many of the same reasons why they have been doing so for the past 200 years: the opportunity and promise of a better life that comes with living in America.
I know some people will not like these facts, but as many have said, facts are pesky things. Just like you appreciate the data and science that went into producing your smartphone and the safety of the aircraft you fly in, you should also appreciate that crime policy would also be based on data and science.
And an uninformed opinion can be a dangerous thing. Let’s be sure that the people we look up to and vote for follow the data wherever that may lead — even if it contradicts what they hear or what somebody said.
Alex R. Piquero is a professor and chair in the Department of Sociology and Criminology and Arts & Sciences Distinguished Scholar at the University of Miami. He previously served as the director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics and is a senior advisor to the Council on Criminal Justice Crime Trends Working Group.
