The housing market is ending 2024 with 'stale' supply

There’s good news in the housing market to close out 2024: There’s a lot more supply on the housing market. The bad news: A lot of that supply is stale, sitting unsold for much longer than usual. 

Active listings in November were 12.1% higher than they were in November 2023 and hit the highest level since 2020, according to a new report from Redfin.

More than half of those homes (54.5%), however, had sat on the market for at least 60 days without going under a contract of sale. That is the highest share for any November since 2019 and is up nearly 50% from the year before, according to the report.

The typical home that did go under contract did so in 43 days, according to Redfin, the slowest November pace since 2019.

“A lot of listings on the market are either stale or uninhabitable. There’s a lot of inventory, but it doesn’t feel like enough,” said Redfin agent Meme Loggins, who was quoted in the report. “I explain to sellers that their house will sit on the market if it’s not fairly priced. Homes that are priced well and in good condition are flying off the market in three to five days, but homes that are overpriced can sit for over three months.”

Mortgage rates shot over 7% in October and have mostly stayed there through the end of the year, according to Mortgage News Daily. Home prices also continue to rise. The latest monthly price report from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, released Tuesday, showed prices nationally up 3.6% in October compared with the same month a year earlier.

With the latest data covering the period prior to the election, our national index has shown continued improvement,” said Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Removing the political uncertainly risk has led to an equity market rally; it will be telling should the similar sentiment occur among homeowners.”

Pending home sales, which is a measure of signed contracts to purchase existing homes, rose in November both monthly and annually to the highest level in nearly two years, according to the National Association of Realtors. They were, however, coming off a very slow base. The Realtors claim interest rates are now at a new normal.

“Consumers appeared to have recalibrated expectations regarding mortgage rates and are taking advantage of more available inventory,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Mortgage rates have averaged above 6% for the past 24 months. Buyers are no longer waiting for or expecting mortgage rates to fall substantially. Furthermore, buyers are in a better position to negotiate as the market shifts away from a seller’s market.”

The slower selling pace, however, doesn’t bode well for the new year, especially with interest rates remaining elevated. There is still demand, but renters are remaining renters longer, according to another Redfin report, due not only to higher home prices but higher prices for brokers and movers.

The seller lock-in effect, where some sellers don’t want to trade their low mortgage rates in order to move, did start to ease in 2024, according to a year-end report from CoreLogic, but that was mostly due to life events or the need to tap accumulated equity. The added inventory didn’t move the needle much on sales, as costs stood in the way.

“Buyers are struggling to keep pace with housing prices. The cost of owning a home now, when adjusted for inflation, is at its highest point in decades. This persistent increase in prices and interest rates has created a challenging environment for both first-time buyers and those looking to move up the property ladder,” wrote Selma Hepp, CoreLogic’s chief economist, in the report.