Former President Trump holds a razor-thin lead over Vice President Harris in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to a new Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania survey.
The poll released Friday showed Trump leading Harris among likely voters by 1 point, 49 percent to 48 percent, in a head-to-head matchup. The lead ticks up to 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent, when undecided voters are pressed to choose.
Both totals are within the margin of error, meaning the candidates are statistically tied.
When third-party candidates are included, Trump and Harris are even at 47 percent each, while independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 3 percent. Two percent were undecided, and no other third-party candidate, like independent Cornel West, received more than 0.3 percent.
The results underscore just how close the battle for the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes is, with it having flipped red in 2016 to help Trump clinch the presidency before flipping back and doing the same for President Biden in 2020.
The poll found both candidates receiving roughly the same amount of support from members of their own party, with about 91 percent of registered Republicans and Democrats saying they support their respective party’s candidate.
Trump has a slight lead among independents, up by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, in the two-person race. He also has a large advantage among voters aged 50 to 69, 57 percent to 40 percent, and a narrow lead among voters 70 and older, 52 percent to 47 percent.
Harris’s strengths come from support among young voters, up 61 percent to 36 percent among those under 40, and union members, leading 57 percent to 42 percent.
The candidates are tied among voters aged 40 to 49, with 49 percent each.
The results follow the release of a Quinnipiac University poll this week that had Harris leading Trump by 3 points in a two-person race and with third party candidates. Strong support among women helped boost her to the lead.
Although the Emerson poll has Harris just behind Trump, it is still an improvement for her compared to its poll last month that had Trump leading by 6 points, 51 percent to 45 percent, among very likely voters.
The poll was conducted among 1,000 likely voters from Aug. 13 to 14. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.
